Air cargo rates have spent two years descending from an extraordinary peak, and they have now been stable for long enough that the level looks structural rather than transitional. It sits meaningfully above where rates were before the disruption and well below where they were during it.

Why the floor is higher

Three durable changes support the new level. E-commerce shipping direct to consumers has continued to grow and is disproportionately air-freighted. Belly capacity, while recovered, has not returned to trend on some long-haul routings that were never fully restored. And shippers who were burned by ocean freight reliability have kept a share of their volume in the air as a hedge, accepting a higher cost for a shorter and more predictable transit.

None of these looks temporary.

Why the ceiling is lower

The peak was a capacity story, not a demand story. When passenger widebodies were parked, the belly capacity that normally carries roughly half of global air freight disappeared almost overnight. Rates rose because there was nowhere to put the boxes.

That capacity is back. Any analysis that treats the peak as a demand signal will overbuild.

Fleet consequences

Freighter conversion slots, which were booked years deep in 2022, have loosened. Conversion houses report shorter lead times and more cancellations. Several operators have deferred conversions rather than cancel, preserving the slot at a cost.

The aircraft type mix is also shifting. Demand has moved toward mid-size freighters that can be filled reliably on a daily rotation, and away from the largest types whose economics need a full load and a long sector to work.

What to watch

Two indicators say more than the headline rate. The first is the spread between contract and spot pricing: a wide spread means shippers expect volatility and are paying to avoid it. The second is the load factor on scheduled freighter networks, which has held up better than rates and suggests operators have taken capacity out rather than discount into a weak market.

That discipline is new, and it is the main reason the floor has held.